Dubai, September 15, 2026 — The Strait of Hormuz crisis is becoming a problem for the entire Gulf, and not simply a disruption to oil tankers.
Six months into the US-Iran conflict, the impact is spreading across the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Saudi Arabia is struggling with attacks on an alternative oil export route, Qatar has faced a severe disruption to LNG shipments, the UAE is dealing with pressure on trade and financial markets, while Kuwait and Bahrain remain exposed to both energy disruption and the wider slowdown in regional activity.
Oman has a different position. Its ports outside the Strait have become increasingly important for cargoes trying to bypass the main chokepoint, but the country is not insulated from the higher insurance, security and logistics costs created by the conflict.
The scale of the disruption was visible again this week.
Only four commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. Before the conflict, the waterway handled about 125 commercial transits a day. Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb also fell, from 28 vessels to 21 in a single day.
For the Gulf, that means the problem is no longer confined to one waterway.
Saudi Arabia: the alternative route is under attack
Saudi Arabia had one of the clearest advantages when Hormuz became difficult to use: its East-West Pipeline can move crude from the country's eastern oil fields to Yanbu on the Red Sea.
That route has now been damaged in attacks attributed to Iran-aligned groups.
Saudi Arabia subsequently suspended crude loadings at Yanbu and cancelled some shipments to European customers. The pipeline normally has the capacity to move around 4 million to 5 million barrels per day, making its disruption significant well beyond the Kingdom.
Oil prices reacted immediately.
Brent settled at $108.75 a barrel on Tuesday, while WTI finished at $105.83. Goldman Sachs has warned that Brent could move above $120 if supply disruptions continue.
There is some disagreement over how long the Saudi pipeline will remain affected. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Tuesday that he expected it to return to operation within days, while other estimates have pointed to a much longer repair period.
That uncertainty is itself becoming part of the market risk.
Qatar: the Gulf's LNG problem
Qatar faces a different exposure.
The country is one of the world's largest LNG exporters, but much of its LNG normally leaves through waters connected to the Strait of Hormuz. That makes Qatar more vulnerable to a prolonged maritime disruption than Gulf producers with alternative export infrastructure.
Reuters reported in August that Qatar's LNG exports had fallen sharply during the crisis, while the International Energy Agency has warned that a disruption to LNG flows through Hormuz would represent a major shock to global gas markets because of Qatar's role in international LNG supply.
The consequences extend beyond Qatar.
Asian buyers have already been searching for alternative supplies after the Middle East disruption removed an estimated 36 million tonnes of LNG from the market. Spot LNG prices in Asia rose from around $10 to almost $30 per million British thermal units during the crisis.
That leaves Doha facing a difficult combination: lost export volumes today and questions about how quickly international buyers will return to normal purchasing patterns once shipping conditions improve.
UAE: ports become an advantage — but not a complete solution
The UAE has arguably had one of the region's strongest logistical positions during the crisis.
Ports such as Jebel Ali and Fujairah sit outside the Strait itself, allowing some cargoes and energy shipments to avoid the chokepoint.
But that advantage has limits.
Shipping companies are still dealing with higher war-risk insurance, longer routes and uncertainty over whether vessels can safely enter or leave the Gulf. The National quoted logistics specialist Emre Yilmaz as saying alternative routes through Oman and the UAE can provide resilience, but cannot reproduce the capacity, economics and convenience of major Gulf hubs such as Jebel Ali.
The UAE's financial markets have also felt the uncertainty.
Dubai's main share index fell 0.8% on Tuesday, while Abu Dhabi's index edged 0.2% higher. Reuters said investors were weighing the Houthi attacks, the sharp decline in Hormuz traffic and the postponement of Gulf-Iran diplomatic discussions.
There is another problem that receives less attention: digital infrastructure.
Amazon Web Services said Tuesday that it has been unable to restore access to one of its three UAE data-hosting zones following damage sustained during missile and drone attacks earlier in the year.
That has pushed the conversation beyond physical infrastructure toward the resilience of the Gulf's cloud and technology economy.
Kuwait: caught between energy dependence and regional trade
Kuwait's exposure is more direct.
Like Qatar, the country depends heavily on the Gulf's maritime energy infrastructure, leaving its exports vulnerable whenever traffic through Hormuz becomes difficult.
The IMF has already sharply reduced its 2026 growth expectations for Kuwait and Qatar because of prolonged disruption to oil, gas, refining, logistics, transport and tourism. The fund has warned that the three economies most affected by the disruption — Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar — could face sharp contractions before a potential rebound as energy exports recover.
That creates a difficult policy environment for Kuwait.
Higher oil prices can support government revenues, but lower export volumes and weaker economic activity can work in the opposite direction. The benefit of expensive crude is therefore not necessarily enough to offset the cost of disrupted trade.
Bahrain: a smaller economy with a larger vulnerability
Bahrain's situation is different again.
The kingdom does not have the same oil-exporting scale as Saudi Arabia, the UAE or Qatar, making the broader effects of the crisis — financing costs, trade disruption, security risks and weaker regional activity — particularly important.
Bahrain has also experienced direct damage to digital infrastructure. Reuters reported Tuesday that AWS was unable to restore access to its Bahrain cloud region after multiple availability zones were damaged during missile and drone strikes. Customers were advised to move workloads elsewhere.
For an economy trying to strengthen financial services and technology, the incident illustrates a vulnerability that has little to do with the price of crude oil.
Oman is the exception — but only partly
Oman occupies a unique position in the Gulf crisis.
Its coastline opens onto the Arabian Sea, outside the Strait of Hormuz, and ports such as Duqm and Salalah have consequently become more relevant to companies looking for alternative logistics routes.
That has given Oman an opportunity.
Cargoes can be diverted through ports outside the Strait before moving overland into the Gulf. But industry experts caution that these routes are less efficient and difficult to scale to the same level as the region's established maritime hubs.
Oman is therefore benefiting from its geography while simultaneously dealing with the wider cost of the conflict: higher insurance premiums, security concerns and weaker regional trade.
What the experts are watching now
The most important question is no longer simply whether Hormuz is technically “open”.
It is whether shipping companies believe it is safe and commercially viable to use it.
That distinction matters because the latest traffic figures show how quickly commercial operators can change their behaviour. With only four commodity vessels crossing Hormuz on Monday compared with roughly 125 a day before the war, the waterway may remain physically navigable while functioning far below normal commercial capacity.
Energy analysts are also watching the length of the disruption rather than the daily oil-price moves.
Saudi Arabia's pipeline, Qatar's LNG exports and the security of Bab el-Mandeb are now interconnected parts of the same supply-chain problem. Reuters reported that the Gulf is still exporting oil through so-called “dark crossings”, but overall Gulf exports remain well below pre-war levels.
And the longer that continues, the harder it becomes for companies to treat the disruption as temporary.
There is also a strategic lesson emerging.
Reuters Breakingviews noted this week that Gulf states have spent years developing pipelines and alternative export routes to reduce their dependence on Hormuz. But the attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline have demonstrated the limitation of that strategy: moving the route does not necessarily remove the security risk.
That may be the most important issue for the Gulf after the current crisis ends.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman all have different economic models, but the same geography links them to the world's most important energy and shipping chokepoints.
The current crisis is exposing that shared vulnerability — and forcing Gulf governments and businesses to reconsider how much of their future trade, energy and digital infrastructure can safely depend on a small number of strategic corridors.
